Trade Wars, Technology and the Global Economy

In May 2025, I joined a panel at the Global Prosperity Summit in Hong Kong to discuss trade wars, geopolitical conflict and their implications for the global economy. The summit was convened by Regina Ip’s Savantas Policy Institute, together with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and the European Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. Held from 19 to 21 May at the Fullerton Ocean Park Hotel, it brought together policymakers, business leaders and researchers for discussions on international cooperation at a particularly uncertain moment.

Our session on 20 May explored the renewed US–China trade confrontation, Europe’s position and the pressures on the international trading system. Moderated by Iñaki Amate, the panel also included Jamil Anderlini, John A. Clarke and Yang Jiemian. My contributions focused on technology, services and the practical challenges facing companies as national security becomes an increasingly important consideration in trade and investment policy.

I argued that China’s efforts to reduce its technological dependence long predated the first Trump administration. Its emphasis on indigenous innovation reflected an early recognition that economic interdependence could also create strategic vulnerabilities. The subsequent trade and technology restrictions reinforced that concern. Both China and the United States understand that technological leadership matters to national security as well as economic competitiveness.

I also questioned the emphasis on restoring manufacturing as the principal measure of American economic success. The debate pays too little attention to services and the digital economy, where the United States has built substantial competitive strengths. China, too, is becoming a more capable exporter of services, including cloud computing and e-commerce. Manufacturing remains important, but it is only part of the picture when thinking about the sources of future growth and competitiveness.

Drawing on my work at the World Economic Forum, I discussed the need for more practical dialogue between national security officials, trade policymakers and business. Security restrictions have expanded well beyond a narrow set of sensitive technologies, often with consequences that are not fully understood when decisions are taken. Companies need to become better at anticipating geopolitical risks, while policymakers need a clearer understanding of how their interventions affect businesses and supply chains. I described our work with Savantas to bring these perspectives together, and the lessons technology companies can learn from sectors such as energy and mining that have long operated in politically challenging environments.

In the closing discussion, I returned to the importance of a functioning WTO and effective dispute settlement, while noting the longstanding difficulty of securing timely commercial relief in politically sensitive disputes. The challenge is to preserve meaningful cooperation and predictability even when relations between the major powers are deteriorating.

Watch the discussion

Watch the full panel on YouTube · Event programme

My contributions begin at 10:22 (China’s technology strategy), 30:02 (technology and services), 46:01 (managing geopolitical risks), and 57:07 (the WTO and dispute settlement).

Photograph: Global Prosperity Summit 2025 official event gallery, cropped.